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How Accurate Is Raleigh's Groundhog Sir Walter Wally?

NC Groundhog, Hog Differ On Winter Weather Outlook

Sir Walter Wally in 2009


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Groundhog Day is once again upon us and Raleigh's own Sir Walter Wally is getting ready to make his annual prediction.

Legend has it that the groundhog will come out of its burrow, if it sees its shadow, then it means there's six more weeks of winter. If the groundhog doesn't see its shadow, then spring is just around the corner.

Sir Walter Wally has been making his predictions for Raleigh since 1998, but how great is his record?

Since 2000, Sir Walter Wally has been right 50 percent of the time. Wally has made 12 predictions, and of those predictions, six were right and six of those were wrong.

Here are Wally's predictions. In:

  • 2000, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was wrong.
  • 2001, he predicted spring was near. He was right.
  • 2002, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was right.
  • 2003, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was right.
  • 2004, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was right.
  • 2005, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was right.
  • 2006, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was wrong.
  • 2007, he predicted spring was near. He was wrong.
  • 2008, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was wrong.
  • 2009, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was wrong.
  • 2010, he predicted six more weeks of winter. He was right.
  • 2011, he predicted six more weeks of winter.He was wrong.

The State Climate Office of North Carolina keeps record of the average and normal temperatures for six weeks after Groundhog Day, click here to see those readings.

So for 2012, do you think Sir Walter Wally or Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow? You can also leave your prediction on our Facebook page.

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