Triangle real estate experts downplay housing forecast

A national report predicts housing prices could fall 3 percent in the Raleigh and Cary area this year.

Clear Capital released the forecast Monday from California, though several local real estate experts downplayed its accuracy.

"It's a big issue for us when people from out of state report on what house prices are going to do here,” said Stacey Anfindsen, a market analyst and appraiser who took his post as president of the Raleigh Regional Association of Realtors this month.

While the prediction shows a decrease in housing prices, it’s less of a decrease than what Clear Capital observed in 2011. The report’s 2011 numbers for Raleigh-Cary showed a 3.7 percent decrease.

"This kind of caught people from left field because nobody had ever heard of them before,” he said.

"It's not really the news we were hoping for. We were hoping the new year would maybe bring prices to start going back up again, but unfortunately that's not the case. So, that's a little frustrating,” said Debbie Hatt, whose family put its Cary house on the market in August.

She said her family has dropped the price three times and are now $30,000 below where they started.

"It's been frustrating. We've had a lot of showings but a lot of the offers that are coming in are extremely low or they're to rent,” she said.

Anfindsen said several indexes like the one from Clear Capital exist, but he does not put much stock in most of them.

"I think it's more misleading than it is accurate. The reason I say that, is our market, and I'm not exaggerating, consists of hundreds of submarkets within the five to six main counties. In some of those markets, house prices are going to go up. In some of those markets, house prices are going to go down.,” he said.

He said reports like the one released Monday can lead to uncertainty.

“To the extent that an index like this causes somebody to sit on the fence, where they might miss an opportunity, then it’s hurtful for the market.”

Anfindsen said if there is a take away from the new report, it’s that housing prices are predicted to rise in some of the “bubble” markets.

“They will lead us theoretically out of the house price decline that we've been in. because once you see stabilization in those bubble markets that means that the excess inventory has been absorbed."

Anfindsen said inventory dictates housing prices. Fewer homes usually equals higher prices. Multiple real estate agents told NBC-17 that inventory is down.  Anfindsen said inventory is down in the Triangle 20 to 30 percent.

Hatt likes Anfindsen’s analysis.

“That is good and that’s what we have in our favor. There’s not a lot in the market in our price range. So, we’re trying to decide if we should keep it on the market and hope that we just have the one person we need come buy the house or we take it off and wait for the market to pick back up again,” she said.

"It's very difficult for home buyers right now to determine are house prices as low as they're going to go and if I offer something on a house is that a good deal for me?"

Michael Walden, an economist at North Carolina State University said multiple indexes like the one from Clear Capital should be taken into account to get a good feel for what’s going on around the country. He said most show modest appreciation in house prices around the nation or show price stability.

Anfindsen said he does follow forecasts from fhfa.gov because it takes into account repeat sales, which show the change in sale prices on the same property.